As the world’s geopolitical tectonic plates shift, Ireland faces an uncertain future. The delicate balance of the past half-century—which has served us well—between the three poles of Britain, the EU and the United States is now out of kilter. It started with Brexit and has continued with the trade war recently unleashed by President Donald Trump.
In particular it has called into question our long-standing policy of military neutrality. With the exception of the years of the Emergency (see ‘Private John Keane’s Emergency’, pp 50–1), this state’s policy was one of ‘unarmed neutrality’, in contrast to the armed neutrality of other European states like Switzerland, Austria and, until 2023, Finland and Sweden. Was this based on a tacit understanding with the British, who were willing to countenance a small military establishment that concentrated on internal security but nothing more, and where air defence was effectively sub-contracted out to the RAF in an arrangement that successive Irish governments have neither confirmed nor denied? Moreover, despite having one of the largest exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and territorial waters in the EU, our navy is hardly worthy of the name (a state of affairs tracked in these pages over the years).
Addressing these shortcomings, however, is distinct from joining the Gadarene rush to rearm in the rest of Europe. Yes, there needs to be a settlement in Ukraine that recognises the sovereignty and security concerns of all parties (and not the current shakedown of Ukraine being orchestrated by President Trump). Beyond that, however, it is doubtful whether Russia poses a credible military threat to the rest of Europe. In any case, who is threatening our (and Europe’s) economic well-being with a trade war? Who is interfering in our domestic politics by, for example, promoting a civilly convicted rapist as our next president? It isn’t Vladimir Putin.
Ireland’s ‘unique relationship’ with the United States, it is said, is based on ‘common ancestral ties and shared values’. But is the latter still the case, particularly given the apparent entrenchment of Trump supporters at every level of US government? In the trash-talk of the now-dominant MAGA discourse, Ireland’s modest social democracy is deemed to be ‘radical left’.
We live in interesting times indeed.
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