On this, the 50th anniversary of the opening of diplomatic relations between Ireland and the Soviet Union in 1974 (See ‘Our man in Moscow’, HI 32.5, Sept./Oct. 2024, pp 48–51, and https://historyireland.com/hedge-schools/), it is timely to reflect on the ongoing war in Ukraine. At the outset, quite rightly, Ireland stood with Ukraine by diplomatically condemning Russia’s unjust and unjustifiable invasion and by providing practical assistance to tens of thousands of refugees. But with the war dragging on into a fourth year, with an estimated one million dead or injured (Wall Street Journal), what does ‘standing with Ukraine’ now mean in practice? The irony is that by driving Russian forces back from its capital, Kyiv, and its second city, Kharkiv, within the first six months, Ukraine had achieved its prime objective of maintaining its sovereignty and independence, while Russia’s aim of engineering regime change and a client state had patently failed. Surely it is time for a negotiated settlement, even if this involves territorial concessions on Ukraine’s part? The fluctuation of borders, from the Arctic to the Black Sea, has been a constant for centuries; the peace and stability that prevailed in the 77 years from the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945 until Russia’s invasion have been the exception rather than the rule. (The bitter irony is that it was a peace hard-won primarily by the sacrifices of the peoples of the USSR, and of Russia and Ukraine in particular.) And as we know from our own experience, territorial integrity, while desirable, is not essential for the survival and prosperity of a state—but peace and stability are. In a variation of the long-discredited ‘domino theory’, the counter-argument is that such concessions would reward aggression, that Putin would come back for another bite in the future or even invade Poland or the Baltic states. This is hardly credible. While it remains a territorial behemoth, Russia has paid and will continue to pay dearly for its miscalculation on Ukraine: previously neutral Finland and Sweden are now members of NATO; a climate-change-conscious world has less need for its primary exports (oil and gas); and relations have been soured for generations with a neighbouring people with whom Russians have had centuries-long fraternal links. Yes, by all means let us continue to stand with Ukraine—but not to the last Ukrainian.
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